Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Military

Of 38 developers who shipped a Military Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 84 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 84 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $594 → $1.4k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $28k → $1.9k → $21k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,495)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 149
Announced 84
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Strategy RPG, RPG
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 15,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
The DioField Chronicle older $59.99 685 49% 21k $1.2M (exactly $1,232,794) Square Enix, LANCARSE Ltd.
War Hospital older $29.99 1,006 60% 30k $905k (exactly $905,098) Brave Lamb Studio S.A.
Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty · EA older $16.99 1,708 69% 51k $871k (exactly $870,568) 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games)
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
Danmo Three Kingdoms: Battle of Wits $11.99 82 76% 2.5k $29k (exactly $29,495) 墨春秋

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.