Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Stealth game?

Stealth + Metroidvania

Only 11 developers shipped a Metroidvania Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $12k against a market of $630. 48 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 18.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2245% on the market, 48 announced, ×12 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $20k → $81k
Outcomes for Stealth + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $12k (exactly $11,870)
Top 25% $240k (exactly $240,480)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,231)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 43
Announced 48
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2245% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Metroidvania
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,454 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Mark of the Ninja: Remastered older $19.99 6,584 95% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,948,425) Klei Entertainment
Dex older $19.99 2,908 86% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,743,928) Dreadlocks Ltd.
Batman™: Arkham Origins Blackgate - Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,682 44% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,695) Armature Studio, LLC
Stay Out of the House older $14.99 1,688 94% 51k $759k (exactly $759,094) Puppet Combo
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Escape Dead Island older $14.99 1,261 60% 38k $567k (exactly $567,072) Fatshark
Kong: Survivor Instinct $24.99 338 71% 10k $253k (exactly $253,399) 7Levels
Zefyr: A Thief's Melody $19.99 401 96% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Oneiric Worlds
The Siege and the Sandfox $14.99 180 64% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Cardboard Sword
Vapor World: Over The Mind · EA $14.99 87 47% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) ALIVE Inc.
DEATH PENALTY $11.99 33 84% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) HACKJOB
Star Mission: Remote Sectors $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Ralph Schaedler
Dream Dazia $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) CosmoRetro Studios LLC
MindKatt:First Strike $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) MapacheXstudio
Homelessvania $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Roman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.