Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Metroidvania?

Physics + Metroidvania

Of 26 developers who shipped a Physics Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×316 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 88 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 88 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $2.1k → $10k → $15k → $1.6k → $3.4k → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,089)
Top 5% $199k (exactly $198,747)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 91
Announced 88
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Platformer, Action
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rain World 2017 · $35M CARRION 2020 · $20M Supraland 2019 · $7.4M Yoku's Island Express 2018 · $1.9M Source of Madness 2022 · $846k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Yoku's Island Express older $19.99 3,220 96% 97k $1.9M (exactly $1,931,034) Villa Gorilla
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Teslagrad older $9.99 1,709 83% 51k $512k (exactly $512,187) Rain Games
GIGA WRECKER older $19.99 728 76% 22k $437k (exactly $436,582) GAME FREAK inc.
Oceanhorn 2: Knights of the Lost Realm older $29.99 296 73% 8.9k $266k (exactly $266,311) Cornfox & Brothers Ltd.
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Exographer $19.99 124 94% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) SciFunGames
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Maseylia : Echoes of the Past $16.99 61 80% 1.8k $31k (exactly $31,092) Sol Brothers
Gravity Castle $14.99 38 89% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Studio LEF
Space Sprouts $10.99 51 96% 1.5k $17k (exactly $16,815) Schleuder Games
Q2 HUMANITY $8.99 56 89% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) liica, Inc.
Goldfish $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Gabry Corti

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.