Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Medieval

Of 48 developers who shipped a Medieval Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×31 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×5913 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 66 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $8.6k → $261k → $112k → $53k → $77k → $14k (still earning) → $9.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Median $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 25% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 203
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 14,437 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
BRAVELY DEFAULT FLYING FAIRY HD Remaster $39.99 803 91% 24k $963k (exactly $963,359) Square Enix, Cattle Call Inc.
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Three Kingdoms: The Blood Moon $8.99 746 91% 22k $201k (exactly $201,196) Kygua Tech
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.