Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Medieval

Of 160 developers who shipped a Medieval Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 308 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 308 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 308 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 160
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $2.9k → $2.7k → $1.6k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 160
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $47,218)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 160
Released games 436
Announced 308
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 22,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 308 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense older $19.99 9,906 93% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) Ironhide Game Studio
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
The Banner Saga 2 older $24.99 3,186 89% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,388,544) Stoic
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.