Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Medieval

Of 137 developers who shipped a Medieval Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 262 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 262 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $597 → $2.0k → $1.9k → $1.3k → $900 → $1.3k (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 137
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $387k (exactly $386,826)
Developers, 2 yr 137
Released games 357
Announced 262
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 30,288 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA older $19.99 12,326 70% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,391,902) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Ancestors Legacy older $34.99 5,794 80% 174k $6.1M (exactly $6,081,962) Destructive Creations
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Definitive Edition older $14.99 9,787 86% 294k $4.4M (exactly $4,401,214) Firefly Studios
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Dungeon Warfare 3 $18.99 679 78% 20k $387k (exactly $386,826) Excidium Inc., Valsar
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.