Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Medieval

Of 53 developers who shipped a Medieval Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×482 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 87 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.5k → $359 → $718 → $809 → $599 → $2.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $229k (exactly $228,742)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 163
Announced 87
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,399 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. Nearly all of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Caves of Lore older $9.99 408 93% 12k $122k (exactly $122,278) by Mike Robins
Dracula: Love Kills older $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Waterlily Games
Firelight Fantasy: Phoenix Crew older $13.99 173 78% 5.2k $73k (exactly $72,608) Quacky Games
The Fortress $6.99 151 68% 4.5k $32k (exactly $31,665) Baryonyx Games
NTR LIFE $3.99 70 74% 2.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,379) Jpegsama
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
Doctor Arcana and The Secret of Shadowspire $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Monolith Graphics, The Hideout
Unwanted Dungeon $7.99 18 88% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Conrado Saud, Conrado Saud

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.