Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Medical Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medical Sim Sandbox?

Sandbox + Medical Sim

Only 11 developers shipped a Medical Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Potion Tycoon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×59 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×601 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Medical Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + Medical Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Median $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 25% $102k (exactly $101,949)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 30
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medical Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Medical Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 1,392 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.9k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.9k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Two Point Hospital older $29.99 26,638 92% 799k $24M (exactly $23,966,209) Two Point Studios
Project Hospital older $24.99 8,387 89% 252k $6.3M (exactly $6,287,734) Oxymoron Games
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Let's School older $19.99 5,887 92% 177k $3.5M (exactly $3,530,434) Pathea Games
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
Big Pharma older $24.99 1,443 78% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,817) Twice Circled
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Weed Shop 2 older $9.99 845 86% 25k $253k (exactly $253,246) ADhD Studios
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
Emergency Room Simulator $24.99 154 43% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Caipirinha Games
Real Feel $19.99 170 64% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Fable Hospital $24.99 82 75% 2.5k $61k (exactly $61,475) AMGames TC
Orgasm Lab Simulator 💦🍌 $14.99 119 69% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) BanzaiProject
Herbals tycoon · EA $9.99 123 76% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Orange Paper Studio
Pharmacy Store Simulator $8.99 60 68% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,182) Art Games Studio S.A.
Pharma Craft $6.99 28 75% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) ZD Yazilim
Pharmacy Simulator: Big Pharma $3.99 14 50% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar
Mimikaki Collect $2.99 13 100% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Studio Mimosa

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.