Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Sandbox?

Sandbox + Mechs

Only 14 developers shipped a Mech Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NITRO GEN OMEGA, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×570 the market median. Revenue is up 940% on the market; 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 940% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $7.1k → $3.6k → $48k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,952)
Top 5% $358k (exactly $358,081)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 45
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 940% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Character Customization, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
Rusted Warfare - RTS older $4.99 6,619 96% 199k $991k (exactly $990,864) Corroding Games
Last Call BBS older $19.99 1,220 94% 37k $732k (exactly $731,634) Zachtronics
Model Builder: Complete Edition older $19.99 1,058 74% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) Moonlit S.A.
Executive Assault older $12.99 1,267 84% 38k $494k (exactly $493,750) Hesketh Studios Ltd
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Mining Merchant $6.99 410 88% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) Delayed Victory
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
Animalkind · EA $19.99 68 91% 2.0k $41k (exactly $40,780) Uncommon Games
Electrogical $7.99 87 93% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,854) kinjo
Typhon: Bot vs Bot · EA $19.99 12 75% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Brightshade Games
Wings of Aviora · EA $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Stormy XP
Citadel Anew $11.99 10 50% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Radical Byte

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.