Should I ship a PvP Match 3?
PvP + Match 3
Of 21 developers who shipped a PvP Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.
Verdict: long shot, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $510, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×96 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $505 (exactly $505) |
| Top 25% | $1.1k (exactly $1,078) |
| Top 5% | $143k (exactly $143,328) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 67 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Match 3; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Local Multiplayer, Arcade
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, Family Friendly
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 1,150 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Lumines Arise 2025 · $1.0M 
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition 2023 · $234k 
Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To 2025 · $143k 
Sagrada 2020 · $95k 
The World Next Door 2019 · $33k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lumines Arise | $39.99 | 848 94% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) | Enhance, Monstars Inc. | |
| | Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition | older | $17.99 | 434 80% | 13k | $234k (exactly $234,230) | Dotemu, Capybara Games |
| | Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To | $19.99 | 239 94% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Soft Not Weak, LLC | |
| | Sagrada | older | $9.99 | 317 94% | 9.5k | $95k (exactly $95,005) | Dire Wolf |
| | The World Next Door | older | $4.99 | 220 81% | 6.6k | $33k (exactly $32,934) | Rose City Games |
 | Flipon | older | $3.99 | 125 92% | 3.8k | $15k (exactly $14,962) | Pixelnest Studio |
 | Sparkles & Gems | older | $14.99 | 29 96% | 870 | $13k (exactly $13,041) | resnijars |
 | Times Trials | $11.99 | 20 100% | 600 | $7.2k (exactly $7,194) | Arc-Fy | |
 | memory® – The Original Matching Game from Ravensburger | older | $14.99 | 13 84% | 390 | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) | Nementic Games, Korion Interactive |
 | WaveCrash!! | older | $9.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $5.7k (exactly $5,694) | Flyover Games |
 | Ruku's Heart Balloon | $8.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $3.8k (exactly $3,776) | RucKyGAMES | |
 | Towers Saga | $12.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | Wise Up Games | |
 | AD BLOCKER: An Action Puzzle Game | $5.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $1.1k (exactly $1,078) | The AD BLOCKER Team | |
 | Gravelix | $6.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | Michal Šára | |
 | Hexara | $4.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | Omnivorian | |
 | Bring The Rift | $3.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | YukiShiroDev | |
 | Day and Night | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Ridiculous Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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