Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Management game?

PvP + Management

Of 100 developers who shipped a PvP Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×569 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 206 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 206 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 100
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $182k → $49k → $149k → $31k → $10k → $14k → $6.0k (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 100
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 5% $852k (exactly $851,659)
Developers, 2 yr 100
Released games 330
Announced 206
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 35,859 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
iRacing Arcade $24.99 1,199 72% 36k $899k (exactly $898,890) Original Fire Games, iRacing
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.