Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Management

Only 14 developers shipped a Management Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mirthwood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $77k, ×57 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1248 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 57.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 41 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.7M → $303k → $40k → $290k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $12,199)
Median $77k (exactly $77,219)
Top 25% $303k (exactly $302,981)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 42
Announced 41
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Management
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 6,757 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $77k, 1 in 4 over $300k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Outlaws of the Old West 2019 · EA · $3.3M Lightyear Frontier 2024 · EA · $3.2M CryoFall 2021 · $2.9M Mad Island 2024 · EA · $2.7M Saleblazers 2023 · EA · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Mad Island · EA older $19.99 4,583 91% 137k $2.7M (exactly $2,748,425) EmadePlus
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Force of Nature 2: Ghost Keeper older $15.99 2,040 79% 61k $979k (exactly $978,588) A.Y.std
Force of Nature older $7.99 3,905 74% 117k $936k (exactly $936,028) A.Y.std
Aground older $14.99 1,823 94% 55k $820k (exactly $819,803) Fancy Fish Games, SnöBox Studio
Tropical Monster Girls · EA $19.99 771 81% 23k $462k (exactly $462,369) Sweet Cakes Games
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
Guardians of the Sanctree $19.99 284 72% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) HuCang Studio
Oceaneers · EA $24.99 103 86% 3.1k $77k (exactly $77,219) Barrel Smash Studios
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds
Stoneguard · EA $6.99 66 75% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Thorn Spire Games
Project Cobalt $10.99 37 67% 1.1k $12k (exactly $12,199) OxygenStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.