Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Magic

Of 36 developers who shipped a Magic Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6127 the market median. Revenue is up 390% on the market; 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 390% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $36k → $29k → $16k → $13k → $28k → $18k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Median $13k (exactly $12,592)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $71,349)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 203
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 390% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, JRPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,286 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Might & Magic® Heroes® VII older $29.99 6,836 54% 205k $6.2M (exactly $6,150,349) Limbic Entertainment
Ni no Kuni Wrath of the White Witch™ Remastered older $49.99 4,023 83% 121k $6.0M (exactly $6,033,293) LEVEL5 Inc., QLOC
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
FAIRY TAIL older $59.99 1,532 74% 46k $2.8M (exactly $2,757,140) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
SaGa Frontier 2 Remastered $29.99 362 93% 11k $326k (exactly $325,691) Square Enix, Bullets
Splintered $9.99 307 88% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) dotMake Studios
Archon Soul $13.99 170 88% 5.1k $71k (exactly $71,349) PolyGryph
Fight Life: Vanguard $11.99 164 69% 4.9k $59k (exactly $58,991) StartImpulse, Two Cakes Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.