Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Magic
Should I ship a Magic Sandbox?
Sandbox + Magic
Of 101 developers who shipped a Magic Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 240 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $940k, ×1505 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 240 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,973) |
| Top 5% | $945k (exactly $945,269) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 101 |
| Released games | 282 |
| Announced | 240 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Building, Open World
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 48,225 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 240 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ 2014 · $38M 
Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M 
RuneScape: Dragonwilds 2026 · $25M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ | older | $19.99 | 63,815 92% | 1.9M | $38M (exactly $38,269,856) | Monolith Productions |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
| | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009) | older | $14.99 | 42,940 94% | 1.3M | $19M (exactly $19,310,118) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
 | Fable Anniversary | older | $34.99 | 14,763 86% | 443k | $15M (exactly $15,496,721) | Lionhead Studios |
 | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind® Game of the Year Edition | older | $14.99 | 22,312 95% | 669k | $10M (exactly $10,033,706) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim | $24.90 | 2,938 77% | 88k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) | Rockbee Team | |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | Planet Centauri | $14.99 | 2,102 75% | 63k | $945k (exactly $945,269) | Permadeath | |
 | YAR: Forgotten Throne | $19.99 | 1,283 89% | 38k | $769k (exactly $769,415) | Honor Games | |
 | Lay of the Land | $19.99 | 1,190 79% | 36k | $714k (exactly $713,643) | Southern Cross Interactive | |
 | Potion Tycoon | $19.99 | 629 71% | 19k | $377k (exactly $377,211) | Snowhound Games | |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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