Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Loot

Only 19 developers shipped a Loot Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tinkerlands, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.7 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×1048 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $442k → $9.6k → $2.1k (still earning) → $85k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 25% $96k (exactly $95,952)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,412,273)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 35
Announced 29
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Loot; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Survival
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 8,227 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SurrounDead 2022 · EA · $8.8M Wild Terra 2: New Lands 2022 · $1.7M DeadPoly 2022 · EA · $1.6M Tinkerlands 2025 · EA · $1.4M DUCKSIDE 2024 · EA · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
Wild Terra 2: New Lands older $39.99 1,379 62% 41k $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) Juvty Worlds
DeadPoly · EA older $9.99 5,384 78% 162k $1.6M (exactly $1,613,585) TFL Games
Tinkerlands · EA $12.99 3,624 85% 109k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,273) CodeManu, Endless Coffee
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Beyond the Map · EA $19.99 764 77% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) Glitch Goblins
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Strayed · EA older $14.99 402 76% 12k $181k (exactly $180,779) Crustacean Interactive
Badiya: Desert Survival · EA older $19.99 284 50% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Semaphore
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Not Quite Dead: Open World Survival · EA $12.99 218 61% 6.5k $85k (exactly $84,955) Voidecho Studio
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds
Wild Planet · EA $19.99 41 63% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) MonkeyFactory Media
Shatterland $7.99 40 62% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) LastPulse Studio
Fallen Angel: Hell Survival $19.99 15 86% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Strongfinger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.