Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Logic

Of 26 developers who shipped a Logic Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.6k → $18k → $15k → $535 → $90 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,786)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,911)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 104
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Puzzle, Grid-Based Movement
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Quilts and Cats of Calico older $19.99 405 93% 12k $243k (exactly $242,878) Monster Couch
Picross Fairytale - nonogram: Red Riding Hood secret older $14.99 235 73% 7.1k $106k (exactly $105,680) Somer Games
Sagrada older $9.99 317 94% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) Dire Wolf
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Bean and Nothingness older $11.99 212 98% 6.4k $76k (exactly $76,256) RBOR Games
Hive older $9.99 244 83% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) BlueLine Games
Puddle Knights older $9.99 219 98% 6.6k $66k (exactly $65,634) Lockpickle
Mahjong Magic Journey older $14.99 136 80% 4.1k $61k (exactly $61,159) Creobit
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Azoove $14.99 46 91% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Timeless Toucan
Prickle $6.99 87 100% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,244) Sunbird Studio
Shrink Rooms $14.99 34 91% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Mat-Rix, Pone Games
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
Mycelium Heaven $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 3DGoblinDev
Kiko's Apple Adventure $5.99 38 94% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) PawPaw Games
Dominocalypse $11.99 11 100% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Barely Cohesive Games, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.