Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Sandbox?

Sandbox + Logic

Of 145 developers who shipped a Logic Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 205 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1212 the market median. Revenue is up 400% on the market; 205 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 400% on the market, 205 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $4.7k → $4.5k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $3.6k → $2.7k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,873)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $761,019)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 396
Announced 205
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 400% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Automation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 39,457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 205 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

shapez 2 - Factory 2026 · $12M Dorfromantik 2022 · $12M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M Airport CEO 2021 · $5.8M shapez 2020 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
shapez older $9.99 14,252 96% 428k $4.3M (exactly $4,271,324) Tobias Springer
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
City Bus Manager older $29.99 2,405 90% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,163,778) PeDePe GbR
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Alchemy Factory $17.99 2,529 87% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) D5 Copperhead
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.