Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Logic game?

PvP + Logic

Of 126 developers who shipped a PvP Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 87 developers shipped in the last year and 157 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 157 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $299 → $479 → $599 → $179 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,574)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 345
Announced 157
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Tabletop
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 10,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Grey Hack · EA older $19.99 1,801 90% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,080,060) Loading Home
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
Last Call BBS older $19.99 1,220 94% 37k $732k (exactly $731,634) Zachtronics
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
GLADIABOTS - AI Combat Arena older $14.99 846 87% 25k $380k (exactly $380,446) GFX47
Quilts and Cats of Calico older $19.99 405 93% 12k $243k (exactly $242,878) Monster Couch
Rhythia · EA $3.99 2,029 83% 61k $243k (exactly $242,871) Capo Games
Party Quiz $11.99 147 80% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) White Ink
SkyShard: City Battler · EA $14.99 106 97% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) ItsBen321
Fallacy Quiz $14.99 88 88% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Tim Krief
Musicmenia $9.99 32 90% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Symphonic Games
Screw Drivers $7.99 39 74% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Creactstudios
Canvas - The Board Game $14.99 19 89% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Mipmap Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.