Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Logic game?

Physics + Logic

Of 283 developers who shipped a Physics Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 318 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 166 developers shipped in the last year and 318 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 318 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 283
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $716 → $327 → $839 → $599 → $838 → $270 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 283
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,214)
Developers, 2 yr 283
Released games 827
Announced 318
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 21,349 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 135 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 318 games are announced against 166 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator 2026 · $8.0M Mars First Logistics 2025 · $2.1M Mars Horizon 2020 · $1.7M Braid, Anniversary Edition 2024 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
The Bridge older $9.99 3,425 87% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,026,472) Ty Taylor, Vega Castañeda
Zup! S older $1.99 15,168 96% 455k $906k (exactly $905,530) Quiet River
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Noun Town Language Learning $19.99 708 84% 21k $425k (exactly $424,588) SUPER HYPER MEGA
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.