Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Local Multiplayer

Only 8 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Conquest of Go, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.8k against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $243k → $123k → $179
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,211)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 125
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 81,394 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 15 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Worms W.M.D older $29.99 10,435 85% 313k $9.4M (exactly $9,388,370) Team17
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
Richman10 older $13.99 11,677 51% 350k $4.9M (exactly $4,900,837) Softstar Technology (Beijing) Co.,Ltd
Worms Armageddon older $14.99 7,851 94% 236k $3.5M (exactly $3,530,595) Team17 Digital Ltd
Civilization IV: Beyond the Sword older $29.99 3,888 96% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Firaxis Games
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Might & Magic: Heroes VI older $9.99 8,545 47% 256k $2.6M (exactly $2,560,936) Blackhole
Worms Revolution older $14.99 5,664 86% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,547,101) Team17 Digital Ltd
Wargroove older $19.99 4,015 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,407,796) Chucklefish
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Fortune Avenue · EA $6.99 63 84% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) Binogure Studio 🐺
Warbits+ $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Risky Lab Inc
Boardquest: Tales of Liria $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ramezware SL
Death and Ladders $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Lema Games
Puzzle Cottage $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Adib Boutros
Tic Tac Rogue · EA $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Pixel Flight Games
Dice Battle: 3D Board Game · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.