Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Sandbox?

Sandbox + Local Multiplayer

Of 34 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $860; 1 in 20 cleared $8.2M, ×13059 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 60 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 60 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $49k → $1.8k → $6.0k → $10k → $1.0k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $860 (exactly $860)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,325)
Top 5% $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 143
Announced 60
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Sports
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 52,173 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $860, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $8.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $860. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition older $24.99 23,349 86% 700k $18M (exactly $17,504,745) Microsoft Game Studios
Goat Simulator older $9.99 54,740 90% 1.6M $16M (exactly $16,405,578) Coffee Stain Studios
Untitled Goose Game older $19.99 22,797 95% 684k $14M (exactly $13,671,361) House House
LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes older $19.99 22,663 95% 680k $14M (exactly $13,591,001) Traveller's Tales
PowerWash Simulator 2 $24.99 10,939 91% 328k $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968) FuturLab
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
Golf It! older $8.99 24,695 90% 741k $6.7M (exactly $6,660,242) Perfuse Entertainment
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Henry Halfhead $12.99 177 97% 5.3k $69k (exactly $68,977) Lululu Entertainment
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
A Corgi's Cozy Hike $19.99 63 100% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Scalisco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.