Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op Sandbox?

Sandbox + Local Co-Op

Of 22 developers who shipped a Local Co-Op Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.2M, ×13059 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 75 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 75 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $11k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $85k → $38k → $1.3k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,279)
Top 5% $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 120
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Local Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Online Co-Op, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 37,149 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $8.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M Grounded 2 2025 · EA · $19M The Escapists 2 2017 · $16M Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes 2013 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
Untitled Goose Game older $19.99 22,797 95% 684k $14M (exactly $13,671,361) House House
LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes older $19.99 22,663 95% 680k $14M (exactly $13,591,001) Traveller's Tales
Goat Simulator 3 older $29.99 13,779 97% 413k $12M (exactly $12,396,966) Coffee Stain North
Portal Knights older $19.99 16,885 83% 507k $10M (exactly $10,125,934) Keen Games GmbH
PowerWash Simulator 2 $24.99 10,939 91% 328k $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968) FuturLab
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
Summer Islands $14.99 190 81% 5.7k $85k (exactly $85,443) Marttalin Games
Henry Halfhead $12.99 177 97% 5.3k $69k (exactly $68,977) Lululu Entertainment
Super Mini Mart · EA $11.99 137 81% 4.1k $49k (exactly $49,279) Blazing Panda
A Corgi's Cozy Hike $19.99 63 100% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Scalisco
Big Dig Energy $9.99 59 69% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) NuggetSmash
PAW Patrol™: Dino World $39.99 14 64% 420 $17k (exactly $16,796) 3DClouds
Pawbay: Cat Chaos $19.99 20 70% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) COMMANDO PANDA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.