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Should I ship a Physics Local Co-Op game?
Physics + Local Co-Op
Of 144 developers who shipped a Physics Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 291 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×414 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 291 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,011) |
| Top 5% | $260k (exactly $260,140) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 144 |
| Released games | 481 |
| Announced | 291 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Local Co-Op
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Local Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Local Multiplayer, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Colorful, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,321 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 291 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M 
Party Animals 2023 · $34M 
Gang Beasts 2017 · $33M 
Stick Fight: The Game 2017 · $15M 
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
| | Party Animals | older | $19.99 | 56,043 81% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $33,608,987) | Recreate Games |
| | Gang Beasts | older | $19.99 | 54,880 85% | 1.6M | $33M (exactly $32,911,536) | Boneloaf, Rocket Science |
| | Stick Fight: The Game | older | $4.99 | 99,952 93% | 3.0M | $15M (exactly $14,962,814) | Landfall West |
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
 | Goat Simulator 3 | older | $29.99 | 13,779 97% | 413k | $12M (exactly $12,396,966) | Coffee Stain North |
 | Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince | older | $29.99 | 11,712 88% | 351k | $11M (exactly $10,537,286) | Frozenbyte |
 | Trine 2: Complete Story | older | $19.99 | 15,273 95% | 458k | $9.2M (exactly $9,159,218) | Frozenbyte |
 | Amazing Frog? | · EA older | $19.99 | 11,169 94% | 335k | $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) | Fayju |
 | Bopl Battle | older | $9.99 | 21,530 97% | 646k | $6.5M (exactly $6,452,541) | Johan Grönvall |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | LEGO® Voyagers | $24.99 | 1,859 88% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) | Light Brick Studio | |
 | World of Goo 2 | $29.99 | 801 87% | 24k | $721k (exactly $720,660) | 2D BOY, Tomorrow Corporation | |
 | Schrodinger's Cat Burglar | $19.99 | 613 97% | 18k | $368k (exactly $367,616) | Abandoned Sheep | |
 | Biped 2 | $14.99 | 813 71% | 24k | $366k (exactly $365,606) | META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios) | |
 | Twin Shot Deluxe | $9.99 | 1,167 95% | 35k | $350k (exactly $349,750) | Nitrome Limited | |
 | Disc Golf Masters | · EA | $24.99 | 427 83% | 13k | $320k (exactly $320,122) | Spinoff Games |
 | Together: Moon Escape | $9.99 | 868 90% | 26k | $260k (exactly $260,140) | CarlosGameDev | |
 | Paddle Paddle Paddle | $4.99 | 1,584 86% | 48k | $237k (exactly $237,125) | Zoroarts | |
 | Bang Bang Barrage | $7.99 | 757 95% | 23k | $181k (exactly $181,453) | Monkey Bread |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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