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Should I ship a Life Sim Sandbox?
Sandbox + Life Sim
Of 457 developers who shipped a Life Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 754 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2858 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 754 games are announced against 273 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.2k (exactly $2,247) |
|---|---|
| Median | $16k (exactly $15,978) |
| Top 25% | $112k (exactly $111,526) |
| Top 5% | $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 457 |
| Released games | 996 |
| Announced | 754 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 309,880 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 5 in 10 of the 240 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 754 games are announced against 273 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Supermarket Simulator | $19.99 | 79,236 92% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,517,829) | Nokta Games | |
| | inZOI | · EA | $39.99 | 30,020 77% | 901k | $36M (exactly $36,014,994) | inZOI Studio |
| | My Time at Portia | older | $29.99 | 34,844 91% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $31,349,147) | Pathea Games |
| | WorldBox - God Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 51,071 95% | 1.5M | $31M (exactly $30,627,279) | Maxim Karpenko |
| | My Time at Sandrock | older | $39.99 | 24,110 88% | 723k | $29M (exactly $28,924,767) | Pathea Games |
| | TCG Card Shop Simulator | $19.99 | 47,357 96% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,399,993) | OPNeon Games | |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
| | PC Building Simulator | older | $19.99 | 42,153 93% | 1.3M | $25M (exactly $25,279,154) | Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation |
| | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames | |
| | Paralives | · EA | $39.99 | 20,123 89% | 604k | $24M (exactly $24,141,563) | Alex Massé and team |
| | Dinkum | $19.99 | 24,641 92% | 739k | $15M (exactly $14,777,208) | James Bendon | |
| | Fields of Mistria | $13.99 | 31,918 96% | 958k | $13M (exactly $13,395,985) | NPC Studio | |
| | Big Ambitions | $25.99 | 14,003 92% | 420k | $11M (exactly $10,918,139) | Hovgaard Games | |
| | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
| | Two Point Museum | $29.99 | 9,626 95% | 289k | $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) | Two Point Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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