Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Life Sim

Only 15 developers shipped a Life Sim Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dinkum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×43 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $22k; 1 in 20 cleared $14M, ×10970 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $22k (exactly $21,917)
Median $58k (exactly $57,542)
Top 25% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $14,777,208)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 36
Announced 28
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Life Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 34,725 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $22k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $740k, 1 in 20 over $14M.

3 in 10 developers made under $22k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Spirit of the Island older $14.99 1,191 69% 36k $536k (exactly $535,593) 1M Bits Horde
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Everafter Falls older $19.99 437 86% 13k $262k (exactly $262,069) SquareHusky
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
Russian Village Simulator on Mars $15.99 58 77% 1.7k $28k (exactly $27,823) VD Games, PropilGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.