Games › Match 3 › Match 3 + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Match 3 Visual Novel?
Match 3 + Visual Novel
Of 24 developers who shipped a Match 3 Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×40 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×1204 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,075) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.8k (exactly $4,790) |
| Top 25% | $59k (exactly $58,982) |
| Top 5% | $143k (exactly $143,328) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 180 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Match 3, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Choices Matter, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,122 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + DemonsFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + ShooterFair
- + MagicFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Dark FantasyFair
- + PvPLong shot
- + CombatLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M 
HuniePop 2: Double Date 2021 · $4.9M 
Mirror 2018 · $4.3M 
ISEKAI QUEST 2020 · $440k 
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2024 · $336k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mirror 2: Project X | · EA older | $1.99 | 111,251 24% | 3.3M | $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) | KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs |
| | HuniePop 2: Double Date | older | $19.99 | 8,149 91% | 244k | $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) | HuniePot |
| | Mirror | older | $1.99 | 72,623 96% | 2.2M | $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) | KAGAMI WORKS |
| | ISEKAI QUEST | older | $3.99 | 3,679 85% | 110k | $440k (exactly $440,376) | Studio Ginkgo |
| | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen | older | $3.99 | 2,807 93% | 84k | $336k (exactly $335,998) | Hue Axis Entertainment |
 | Wolf of Stock Street | older | $10.99 | 878 77% | 26k | $289k (exactly $289,477) | 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer |
 | Wish | older | $2.99 | 3,115 89% | 93k | $279k (exactly $279,416) | Momentum Games |
 | Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer | older | $9.99 | 738 96% | 22k | $221k (exactly $221,179) | Furlough Games |
 | Sex and the Furry Titty 2: Sins of the City | older | $9.99 | 708 91% | 21k | $212k (exactly $212,188) | Furlough Games |
 | Sex and the Furry Titty | older | $6.99 | 996 90% | 30k | $209k (exactly $208,861) | Furlough Games |
 | Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 | $19.99 | 341 96% | 10k | $204k (exactly $204,498) | Strange Scaffold | |
 | Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To | $19.99 | 239 94% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Soft Not Weak, LLC | |
 | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 | $9.99 | 389 93% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Heartspell: Horizon Academy | $19.99 | 116 96% | 3.5k | $70k (exactly $69,565) | Dire Kitten Games | |
 | Hentai Stories | $9.99 | 228 83% | 6.8k | $68k (exactly $68,332) | Horny Capybara Studio | |
 | Island Of Enchantment | $4.99 | 394 93% | 12k | $59k (exactly $58,982) | DigitalDream | |
 | Furry Adventure Club and the Holy Grail 🦁 | $6.99 | 161 93% | 4.8k | $34k (exactly $33,762) | Furry Dreams Lab | |
 | Hyperborea: Hornysolation | $4.99 | 164 73% | 4.9k | $25k (exactly $24,551) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator | $6.99 | 63 95% | 1.9k | $13k (exactly $13,211) | DuckMemeticsGames | |
 | Naughty Store Manager | $11.99 | 27 33% | 810 | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | eroverse |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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