Do I ship it?

GamesTower DefenseTower Defense + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Tower Defense?

Tower Defense + Match 3

Only 9 developers shipped a Match 3 Tower Defense in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Titanium Court, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 320% on the market; 9 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 320% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tower Defense + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $359 → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tower Defense + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 5% $492k (exactly $491,972)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 27
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 320% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Tower Defense, Match 3
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,676 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tower Defense with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DwarvesStrong odds10 devs · median $6.7k · 9 announced
  2. + MiningFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  3. + Survival HorrorFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 20 announced
  5. + TanksFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  6. + MechsFair24 devs · median $1.5k · 24 announced
  7. + IdlerFair108 devs · median $1.2k · 136 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  9. + Gun CustomizationFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  10. + LogicFair40 devs · median $955 · 44 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterFair11 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair8 devs · median $897 · 8 announced

All 150 pairs on the Tower Defense page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Tomb of Tyrants older $7.99 234 78% 7.0k $56k (exactly $56,090) Jake Huhman
Cats on Duty older $9.99 142 90% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,557) Prikol Team
ReignMaker older $14.99 47 80% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Frogdice
CrossOver: Roll For Initiative older $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Gaterooze, Ink, MicroProse Software
Underwater battles older $39.99 12 75% 360 $14k (exactly $14,396) Stas Paty9mkin
转生魔塔 $11.99 26 88% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Zeros
Secrets of Egypt older $9.99 16 62% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Stas Paty9mkin
Terminal squad: Sentinel older $3.99 29 55% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) WinDARities, Driod Riot
Supermagical older $3.99 24 79% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) Super Awesome Hyper Dimensional Mega Te… (Super Awesome Hyper Dimensional Mega Team)
Pinball Hero $3.99 17 76% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) COSO
BeatHero $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Rainboar Studios
99 Games: Puzzle, Action, Strategy, Simulation, Casual, Roguelike, Shooter, RPG & More $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Chongqing Xishou Technology Co., Ltd
Merge Guard $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Raido Studios
Tap X3 $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Firewood Games
Match3Tower $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GraphXGames
Five Elements Clash Battle $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) YIN YUAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.