Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Match 3?

Combat + Match 3

Only 13 developers shipped a Combat Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Titanium Court, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×783 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.5k → $359 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $718 (exactly $718)
Top 5% $492k (exactly $491,972)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 44
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Board Game, Puzzle, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,210 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 16 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  8. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  9. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced
  12. + ProgrammingPoor odds10 devs · median $14k · 19 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Titanium Court 2026 · $492k Re:DESTINY 2021 · $51k Furry Fantasy 2022 · $25k Glamour Kaleidoscope 2026 · $22k CyberCum: Pussy Attack❗️ 2023 · $16k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Re:DESTINY older $3.99 430 76% 13k $51k (exactly $51,471) D-Ark Studio
Furry Fantasy older $6.99 120 72% 3.6k $25k (exactly $25,164) Octo Games
Glamour Kaleidoscope $7.99 90 75% 2.7k $22k (exactly $21,573) Cup Dragon
CyberCum: Pussy Attack❗️ older $3.99 131 61% 3.9k $16k (exactly $15,681) Octo Games
Crown of Pain older $4.99 83 69% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Jagit Games, Coldwild Games
Snake Crush older $3.99 95 87% 2.9k $11k (exactly $11,372) Sugarcane Games
Furry Love & Sex older $6.99 51 82% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) Octo Games
Progeria: Vae Victis older $9.99 27 92% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) TryhardS
WaveCrash!! older $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Flyover Games
BeatHero $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Rainboar Studios
Bring The Rift $3.99 6 100% 180 $718 (exactly $718) YukiShiroDev
Hentai Castle $2.99 6 16% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Iron Jelly
Mysteerie $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Mallow Games
Paw & Cards $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Mobumin
My Little Merling $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Cuddly Games
Wizard's Guide $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) RandomDice Studio
Cat 3 $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) adoptedmouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.