Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Level Editor

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Level Editor Sandbox?

Sandbox + Level Editor

Of 128 developers who shipped a Level Editor Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 216 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×664 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 216 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 216 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Level Editor
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 128
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $5.4k → $2.1k → $7.0k → $18k → $3.0k → $2.7k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Level Editor: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 128
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,189)
Top 5% $417k (exactly $416,917)
Developers, 2 yr 128
Released games 412
Announced 216
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Level Editor
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Level Editor; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 48,639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 216 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Forts older $14.99 21,216 92% 636k $9.5M (exactly $9,540,835) EarthWork Games
Mindustry older $9.99 24,608 95% 738k $7.4M (exactly $7,375,018) AnukenDev
Golf It! older $8.99 24,695 90% 741k $6.7M (exactly $6,660,242) Perfuse Entertainment
GoreBox older $8.99 23,130 84% 694k $6.2M (exactly $6,238,161) F2Games
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Parkitect older $29.99 6,809 94% 204k $6.1M (exactly $6,126,057) Texel Raptor
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Turbo Dismount® 2 $19.99 753 95% 23k $452k (exactly $451,574) Secret Exit Ltd.
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
Replicube $9.99 709 96% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) Walaber Entertainment LLC
Hometopia $8.99 777 57% 23k $210k (exactly $209,557) Hometopia Inc.
Overthrown $24.99 255 55% 7.7k $191k (exactly $191,174) Brimstone

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.