Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Job Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Job Simulator Sandbox?

Sandbox + Job Simulator

Of 82 developers who shipped a Job Simulator Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×34 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 107 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 107 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Job Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $234k → $1.5M → $187k → $23k → $43k → $12k → $33k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Job Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,591)
Median $21k (exactly $21,384)
Top 25% $75k (exactly $75,100)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,970)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 125
Announced 107
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Job Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Job Simulator; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 62,376 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $75k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 4 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Project Hospital older $24.99 8,387 89% 252k $6.3M (exactly $6,287,734) Oxymoron Games
Taxi Life: A City Driving Simulator older $29.99 4,414 62% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Simteract
Firefighting Simulator - The Squad older $24.99 4,287 82% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,213,964) Chronos Unterhaltungssoftware
Job Simulator older $19.99 4,406 91% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,642,278) Owlchemy Labs
Loddlenaut older $19.99 3,832 98% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,298,050) Moon Lagoon
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
AirportSim older $34.99 1,412 67% 42k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,176) MS GAMES, MK STUDIOS
Alchemy Factory $17.99 2,529 87% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) D5 Copperhead
Docked $29.99 1,210 72% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,637) Saber Interactive
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Ship, Inc. $9.99 2,168 83% 65k $650k (exactly $649,750) Rogue Duck Interactive
Laundry Store Simulator $11.99 1,804 89% 54k $649k (exactly $648,899) Akhir Pekan Studio
ServiceIT: You can do IT $12.99 676 56% 20k $263k (exactly $263,437) picture4u
Sort Them Ducks $5.99 1,461 92% 44k $263k (exactly $262,542) Mr.Duck
Inn Tycoon $11.99 727 76% 22k $262k (exactly $261,502) Evil Goose Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.