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Should I ship an Investigation Sandbox?
Sandbox + Investigation
Of 37 developers who shipped an Investigation Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $290; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11228 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 71 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $282 (exactly $282) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $29,617) |
| Top 5% | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 89 |
| Announced | 71 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Investigation
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Investigation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 41,982 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $290. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Big Walk 2026 · $19M 
The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M 
Bugsnax 2022 · $6.5M 
while True: learn() 2019 · $2.9M 
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War 2019 · $481k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
| | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
| | Bugsnax | older | $24.99 | 8,673 97% | 260k | $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) | Young Horses |
| | while True: learn() | older | $12.99 | 7,350 91% | 221k | $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) | Luden.io |
| | Sigma Theory: Global Cold War | older | $17.99 | 892 77% | 27k | $481k (exactly $481,412) | Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre) |
 | Autobahn Police Simulator 3 | older | $29.99 | 374 58% | 11k | $336k (exactly $336,488) | Z-Software |
 | Responding | · EA | $24.99 | 409 45% | 12k | $307k (exactly $306,627) | Visionary Studios |
 | Counter Terrorist Agency | older | $19.99 | 479 43% | 14k | $287k (exactly $287,256) | Play2Chill |
 | Conrad Stevenson's Paranormal P.I. | older | $9.99 | 860 93% | 26k | $258k (exactly $257,742) | D&A Studios |
 | Crash Time 2 | older | $4.99 | 1,170 63% | 35k | $175k (exactly $175,149) | · |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Haunted House Renovator | $19.99 | 197 45% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Image Power S.A. | |
 | Emergency Room Simulator | $24.99 | 154 43% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Caipirinha Games | |
 | Airport X-Ray Simulator | · EA | $12.99 | 253 80% | 7.6k | $99k (exactly $98,594) | Rainbow Lab |
 | Crawling Angels | $9.99 | 202 96% | 6.1k | $61k (exactly $60,539) | ItsTheTalia, Autumn West | |
 | Among The Whispers - Provocation | $14.99 | 101 79% | 3.0k | $45k (exactly $45,420) | D&A Studios | |
 | Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator | · EA | $12.99 | 76 43% | 2.3k | $30k (exactly $29,617) | Geekon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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