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Should I ship a Physics Investigation game?
Physics + Investigation
Of 55 developers who shipped a Physics Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×329 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 100 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,135) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $206,468) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 55 |
| Released games | 121 |
| Announced | 100 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Investigation
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 337,034 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
PEAK 2025 · $72M 
Big Walk 2026 · $19M 
Content Warning 2024 · $17M 
Bugsnax 2022 · $6.5M 
Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PEAK | $7.99 | 301,964 94% | 9.1M | $72M (exactly $72,380,771) | Team PEAK | |
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
| | Content Warning | older | $7.99 | 72,444 93% | 2.2M | $17M (exactly $17,364,827) | Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog |
| | Bugsnax | older | $24.99 | 8,673 97% | 260k | $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) | Young Horses |
| | Arctic Eggs | older | $9.99 | 5,343 95% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) | The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex) |
 | Machinika: Museum | older | $7.99 | 1,184 91% | 36k | $284k (exactly $283,805) | Littlefield Studio |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio | |
 | Crash Time 2 | older | $4.99 | 1,170 63% | 35k | $175k (exactly $175,149) | · |
 | WE ARE SO DEAD | · EA | $7.99 | 672 73% | 20k | $161k (exactly $161,078) | REAL PLAYERS |
 | Airport X-Ray Simulator | · EA | $12.99 | 253 80% | 7.6k | $99k (exactly $98,594) | Rainbow Lab |
 | Japan Stigmatized Property -日本事故物件監視協会- | $7.99 | 360 74% | 11k | $86k (exactly $86,292) | 日本事故物件監視協会 | |
 | Exographer | $19.99 | 124 94% | 3.7k | $74k (exactly $74,363) | SciFunGames | |
 | Crawling Angels | $9.99 | 202 96% | 6.1k | $61k (exactly $60,539) | ItsTheTalia, Autumn West | |
 | Police Officer | $11.99 | 125 65% | 3.8k | $45k (exactly $44,962) | Turquoise Games | |
 | Jeffrey Eggstein | · EA | $4.99 | 290 94% | 8.7k | $43k (exactly $43,413) | Grabba Guild Games LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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