Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Inventory Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Inventory Management Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Inventory Management

Only 18 developers shipped an Inventory Management Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60k, ×95 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.5M, ×13558 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 95.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Inventory Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $152k → $1.2k → $37k → $157k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Inventory Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Median $60k (exactly $59,810)
Top 25% $201k (exactly $200,566)
Top 5% $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 43
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Inventory Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Inventory Management; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Auto Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 24,400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $60k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $8.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Home Behind 2 older $19.99 6,585 86% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,949,024) TPP Studio
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Ring of Pain older $19.99 3,256 91% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,952,623) Simon Boxer, Twice Different
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Legends of Eisenwald older $19.99 1,394 76% 42k $836k (exactly $835,982) Aterdux Entertainment
Lootbound $14.99 1,248 77% 37k $561k (exactly $561,226) ArtDock
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Apokerlypse $9.99 612 81% 18k $183k (exactly $183,416) Breaker Games
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Wardrum $24.99 87 86% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Mopeful Games
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.