Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Inventory Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Inventory Management Sandbox?

Sandbox + Inventory Management

Of 217 developers who shipped an Inventory Management Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 366 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1033 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 366 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 366 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Inventory Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 217
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $13k → $33k → $17k → $21k → $3.2k → $4.8k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Inventory Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 217
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,141)
Top 5% $649k (exactly $648,899)
Developers, 2 yr 217
Released games 450
Announced 366
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Inventory Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Inventory Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 130,968 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 366 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
PC Building Simulator older $19.99 42,153 93% 1.3M $25M (exactly $25,279,154) Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
Two Worlds II HD older $24.99 3,880 60% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,908,836) Reality Pump Studios
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Ship Graveyard Simulator 2 older $24.99 3,634 77% 109k $2.7M (exactly $2,724,410) Games Incubator, Hypnotic Ants
Grocery Store Simulator $14.99 5,337 90% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,400,049) EXPERIMENT ONE
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.