Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Interactive Fiction?

PvP + Interactive Fiction

Only 12 developers shipped a PvP Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Native Hunter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $320; 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×21 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 30 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 30 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $4.5k → $314 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $314 (exactly $314)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,544)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,303)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 33
Announced 30
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Eternal Castle [REMASTERED] older $14.99 685 87% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) Leonard Menchiari, Daniele Vicinanzo, G… (Leonard Menchiari, Daniele Vicinanzo, Giulio Perrone)
World Wide Hack · EA older $16.99 69 60% 2.1k $35k (exactly $35,169) Lotus Innovations
Native Hunter $17.99 58 72% 1.7k $31k (exactly $31,303) A.P.S
Puppet Fever · EA older $14.99 31 87% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Coastalbyte Games
ASTROSMASH older $14.99 18 77% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) BBG Entertainment GmbH
The Trasamire Campaigns older $12.99 20 70% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) Gemcutter Games
Diddy $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) GalaxyVerse
Call of Coronga older $3.99 44 65% 1.3k $5.3k (exactly $5,267) Luiz Felipe Da Silva Marian
Roarr! The Adventures of Rampage Rex older $2.99 54 66% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) Born Lucky Games
Saints and Sinners · EA older $6.99 22 63% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) threeW
Azmar Quest - Text Based RPG $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Sevan Soukiassian
MechaCap Arena $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Paraflux Games
the travelers $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Gabriel Games LLC
MEMOLOGY: War of Memes $0.99 52 76% 1.6k $1.5k (exactly $1,544) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibaln… (Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibalnotdead)
The Storyteller $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ferrari Dev
ASTROSMASH 1981 $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) BBG Entertainment GmbH
hEvEN oN sNOrF $3.49 3 100% 90 $314 (exactly $314) Majao Games
RP2D Virtual Tabletop · EA $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Lilibot Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.