Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Interactive Fiction?

Physics + Interactive Fiction

Of 42 developers who shipped a Physics Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×168 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 52 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $299 → $1.4k → $4.0k → $719 → $1.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 5% $105k (exactly $105,392)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 91
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 11,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Donut County 2018 · $4.3M Easy Delivery Co. 2025 · $3.7M despelote 2025 · $455k Next Space Rebels 2021 · $196k Workshop Simulator 2022 · $170k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Donut County older $12.99 11,038 91% 331k $4.3M (exactly $4,301,509) Ben Esposito
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
despelote $14.99 1,011 95% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena
Next Space Rebels older $19.99 327 84% 9.8k $196k (exactly $196,102) Studio Floris Kaayk
Workshop Simulator older $19.99 284 67% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) INTERMARUM
Content King $11.99 293 95% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Usurper Studios
Maskmaker older $9.99 254 93% 7.6k $76k (exactly $76,124) InnerspaceVR
ComeCloser $39.99 60 68% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) CCT
Pekoe · EA older $17.99 128 82% 3.8k $69k (exactly $69,082) Kitten Cup Studio
Shohei's Adult Streaming Channel older $12.99 158 62% 4.7k $62k (exactly $61,573) Nurarihyon
Space Control $17.99 52 96% 1.6k $28k (exactly $28,064) MoonMonster Studios
RigidGems Museum $24.99 25 96% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) FerioWorks
Human Fast Food $6.99 79 89% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,566) Bricchi Games
Detective Penguin $6.99 54 87% 1.6k $11k (exactly $11,324) That Other Fish, That Fish
Fofumia $15.99 21 85% 630 $10k (exactly $10,074) Actoon Studio
VR Naughty $4.99 67 38% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,030) CTM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.