Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Interactive Fiction

Of 23 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $838 → $3.8k → $208 → $719 → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $20,509)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 68
Announced 34
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 1,102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Spooky Station older $4.99 345 88% 10k $52k (exactly $51,646) Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO… (Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO Game Studio, Spookids Team, Calangames, Expresso Studios, Pastel Studios, Heavy Sheep, LASTONE, Asteristic Game Studio)
Slave Princess Finne, why did she sell out her own kingdom? older $17.99 82 87% 2.5k $44k (exactly $44,255) Circle Fairy Flower
Jung's Labyrinth older $14.99 65 70% 2.0k $29k (exactly $29,230) Jan Jileček
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)
ACCIDENTALLY $12.99 30 60% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) M&K WORKS
DreamBreak older $6.99 48 56% 1.4k $10k (exactly $10,066) Fortell Games
Damsels in Distress $8.99 36 83% 1.1k $9.7k (exactly $9,709) Anime Mania
Pyramid Curse older $3.99 78 83% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) SpoocleMacBoogle
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
Hello Anxiety $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Aleph Echo
The Broken Ceiling $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Iron Octopus Productions Inc.
N/A Museum $9.00 4 50% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,080) TheObserverStudio
Roxanne The Forgotten Path $11.99 2 50% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Steven Meza, MarosGraphic 7
Moonless Night $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Tzompixel Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.