Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Stealth game?

Stealth + Incremental

Only 9 developers shipped an Incremental Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 100 Cats Lost In World Find & Color, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $599 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 28
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Incremental
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 87% positive over 55 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $1.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Embarrassed Shina-chan~ the Naked Wandering College Girl older $19.99 167 60% 5.0k $100k (exactly $100,150) かわいそうなのは抜ける
Vandals older $4.99 81 76% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) Cosmografik, Novelab, Ex Nihilo, ARTE F… (Cosmografik, Novelab, Ex Nihilo, ARTE France)
Infectious older $3.99 77 67% 2.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,217) Ziggy Makes Games
100 Cats Lost In World Find & Color $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Two Cats Games
Miss Peach older $2.99 19 68% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) 哐哐Team
A Week in the Office -Under the Table- older $4.99 9 33% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Fidchell Games
100 Cats Lost In USA Find & Color $3.99 11 81% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Two Cats Games
100 Cats Lost In World 2 Find & Color · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Two Cats Games
Duty Free Shop Simulator · EA $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) CLOWN MAGIC
Office Leveling $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) DiceNook, Dragon Cry Studio
LOOPER★LOOPER older $4.99 4 50% 120 $599 (exactly $599) IDEA FRUITION
Ivan $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Henry Scheuller
Atlas Zone $6.00 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) StoneBreaker Studios
Tommy and the Monster Prison $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Marcelo Tomen Guedes De Morais
Keyboard Warrior Simulator $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SomeTimesAtNight
Mouspionage $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HawtLava Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.