Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Incremental game?

Physics + Incremental

Of 185 developers who shipped a Physics Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 224 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 129 developers shipped in the last year and 224 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 224 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 185
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $538 → $239 → $239 → $359 → $418 → $359 → $359 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 185
Bottom 30% $135 (exactly $135)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,753)
Top 5% $106k (exactly $106,294)
Developers, 2 yr 185
Released games 364
Announced 224
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Strategy
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 26,475 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $140, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $140. 9 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 224 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

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Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
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Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Leaf it Alone $5.99 6,244 95% 187k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,047) Eternity
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Carpet Cleaning Simulator $6.99 508 87% 15k $107k (exactly $106,528) daimaGAME
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ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.