Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Incremental

Only 13 developers shipped an Incremental Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Legacy of Defense, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×275 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $299 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,636)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 39
Announced 13
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 450% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Sex with Succubus ❤️‍🔥 older $9.99 176 50% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) Octo Games
The Sealed Ampoule older $19.99 56 80% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) CAVYHOUSE
The Lab - Escape Room older $9.99 48 79% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) Flat Cat Games
Neko Dungeon | 喵酱迷城 | 喵醬迷城 | ねこダンジョン older $7.99 35 48% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) TK Studio
NTR LIFE $3.99 70 74% 2.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,379) Jpegsama
Old Tunnel older $8.99 29 72% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) HugePixel
Dark Treasury older $4.99 52 69% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Astralis Games, Red Axe
Dungeon Slime 2: Puzzle in the Dark Forest older $1.99 45 97% 1.4k $2.7k (exactly $2,686) Daniel Siqueira Abdelnur
Questboard $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Binary Cabin
1 HP DUNGEON $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) mauneven
Hello Anxiety $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Aleph Echo
Depths of Providence $2.99 14 100% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Ryan Lutz
Pixel Way: Prologue $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Levelborn
Halloween Mystery: 100 Hidden Object Fruits $0.99 10 50% 300 $297 (exactly $297) ArPeaKK Games
Backrooms: Exit 8 $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Luke Gayson
Dungeon (W)Hoarders $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Chad McCoskey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.