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Should I ship an Incremental Mystery Dungeon?
Mystery Dungeon + Incremental
Only 13 developers shipped an Incremental Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Legacy of Defense, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.
Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×275 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $299 (exactly $299) |
| Top 25% | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) |
| Top 5% | $131k (exactly $130,636) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 39 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 450% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Mystery Dungeon, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Dungeon Crawler
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 670 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + TacticalStrong odds
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SimulationFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + HistoricalFair
- + PhysicsFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Escape Dungeon | older | $12.99 | 817 79% | 25k | $318k (exactly $318,385) | Hide Games |
| | Legacy of Defense | $7.99 | 545 72% | 16k | $131k (exactly $130,636) | Enter the Game Studios | |
| | Sex with Succubus ❤️🔥 | older | $9.99 | 176 50% | 5.3k | $53k (exactly $52,747) | Octo Games |
| | The Sealed Ampoule | older | $19.99 | 56 80% | 1.7k | $34k (exactly $33,583) | CAVYHOUSE |
| | The Lab - Escape Room | older | $9.99 | 48 79% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,386) | Flat Cat Games |
| | Neko Dungeon | 喵酱迷城 | 喵醬迷城 | ねこダンジョン | older | $7.99 | 35 48% | 1.1k | $8.4k (exactly $8,390) | TK Studio |
| | NTR LIFE | $3.99 | 70 74% | 2.1k | $8.4k (exactly $8,379) | Jpegsama | |
| | Old Tunnel | older | $8.99 | 29 72% | 870 | $7.8k (exactly $7,821) | HugePixel |
| | Dark Treasury | older | $4.99 | 52 69% | 1.6k | $7.8k (exactly $7,784) | Astralis Games, Red Axe |
| | Dungeon Slime 2: Puzzle in the Dark Forest | older | $1.99 | 45 97% | 1.4k | $2.7k (exactly $2,686) | Daniel Siqueira Abdelnur |
| | Questboard | $5.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $1.6k (exactly $1,617) | Binary Cabin | |
| | 1 HP DUNGEON | $4.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) | mauneven | |
| | Hello Anxiety | $6.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.5k (exactly $1,468) | Aleph Echo | |
| | Depths of Providence | $2.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) | Ryan Lutz | |
| | Pixel Way: Prologue | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Levelborn | |
| | Halloween Mystery: 100 Hidden Object Fruits | $0.99 | 10 50% | 300 | $297 (exactly $297) | ArPeaKK Games | |
| | Backrooms: Exit 8 | $3.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $239 (exactly $239) | Luke Gayson | |
| | Dungeon (W)Hoarders | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Chad McCoskey |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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