Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Idler?

Idler + Word Game

Of 48 developers who shipped a Word Game Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 1 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×11 the market's $120 for a 1 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×897 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 38 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 38 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $2.6k → $2.6k → $1.8k → $1.4k → $1.8k → $538 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $107k (exactly $106,693)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 147
Announced 38
Effort 1 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
1 / 10 · text and UI only
Systems
Idler, Word Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Incremental, Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 3,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
懒人修仙传2 · EA older $7.99 873 71% 26k $209k (exactly $209,258) 托更的修罗
Space industrial empire older $5.99 1,022 85% 31k $184k (exactly $183,653) 游戏养家工作室
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
懒人修仙传 older $3.99 1,172 60% 35k $140k (exactly $140,288) 托更的修罗
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
The Eastern Sacrifice $9.99 356 55% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
挂机神话 older $1.99 1,693 90% 51k $101k (exactly $101,072) 狮子
UncleOffice:uncle Dating Simulator $15.99 92 61% 2.8k $44k (exactly $44,132) GameUncle
Lower? Higher! $9.99 146 67% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Unplugged Studio
Idle Land of Exile $4.99 239 68% 7.2k $36k (exactly $35,778) 所以然
神魔山海经 Gods Monster $11.99 57 59% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) 红尘背包客
Idle Xianxia Cultivation $2.99 159 88% 4.8k $14k (exactly $14,262) 觅仙踪
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Cultivation Idle · EA $1.99 85 76% 2.6k $5.1k (exactly $5,074) 老鱼工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.