Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler FPS?

FPS + Idler

Of 22 developers who shipped an Idler FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $840. Revenue is up 725% on the market; 23 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 725% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $6.6k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $836 (exactly $836)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,012)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $24,060)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 64
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 725% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Puzzle
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $3.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $3.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,859 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  4. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  8. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  9. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  10. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  11. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced
  12. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead District: Survival older $9.99 415 48% 12k $124k (exactly $124,376) BadBit Games
KUNKUN Defender older $2.99 822 97% 25k $74k (exactly $73,733) Seal
Sakura Hime 3 older $3.99 532 95% 16k $64k (exactly $63,680) GirlGames
CYBRID · EA older $14.99 139 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Tom Reason
5 NIGHTS AT SHALUN 4: SCHOOL $1.99 535 93% 16k $32k (exactly $31,940) Team GZ, VADIM CHURILOV
Sakura Hime 4 older $3.99 266 93% 8.0k $32k (exactly $31,840) GirlGames
Elf World Adventure: Part 1 older $1.99 467 82% 14k $28k (exactly $27,880) White Panda Studio, 430Games
Sakura Hime 5 $3.99 201 93% 6.0k $24k (exactly $24,060) GirlGames
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
Farming Incremental But With Guns $3.99 113 88% 3.4k $14k (exactly $13,526) Clementine Wolf Games
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
Paperwork $3.99 92 95% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,012) Broken Record Studio
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
Angel's Love $2.99 109 90% 3.3k $9.8k (exactly $9,777) God's City Days
Farm Supply Simulator 25 · EA $11.99 26 84% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Superwolf Game Studio, Lycan Arts
Flirting Goddesses by AFK $2.99 104 96% 3.1k $9.3k (exactly $9,329) God's City Days

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.