Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Idler?

Idler + Supernatural

Of 22 developers who shipped a Supernatural Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×6.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×323 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 35 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $45k → $836 → $598 (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,232)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,557)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $153,232)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 45
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 2D Platformer, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,881 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Graces: Posthumous Wish $7.99 187 93% 5.6k $45k (exactly $44,824) TomoToro
Greenhearth Necromancer $10.99 88 96% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) Silverstring Media Inc.
Succubus Contract I $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Stick4Luck
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games
Madness inside $6.99 76 73% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,937) ZV GAMES
Idle Regenerator $9.99 46 58% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Gestalt Gaming LLC
The Brave Little Cloud older $9.99 27 100% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) VICTORIA Games
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
A game about sucking (up ghosts with a Vacuum) $3.99 30 63% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) Brave Traveller Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.