Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Solitaire Idler?

Idler + Solitaire

Only 8 developers shipped a Solitaire Idler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dice People, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 1 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $270 against a market of $120. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 12 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Idler + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,494)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 26
Announced 12
Effort 1 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
1 / 10 · text and UI only
Systems
Idler, Solitaire
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 43% positive over 4,569 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $270, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Dice People $2.99 719 90% 22k $64k (exactly $64,494) Mateusk2m, Manodeix
The Little Trashmaid Puzzletime older $4.99 26 96% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Josh Larsen, s0s2
Solitaire - Cat Pirate Portrait older $1.99 24 58% 720 $1.4k (exactly $1,433) Boogygames Studios
Casino Slot Machines older $1.99 22 45% 660 $1.3k (exactly $1,313) Boogygames Studios
Work Sucks, Let’s Play Dou Dizhu! $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Schelling Point
摸鱼拼图/Easy Jigsaw Puzzle older $0.99 11 90% 330 $327 (exactly $327) chengguogamelimitedcompany
Hexseeker older $5.00 2 50% 60 $300 (exactly $300) bankbank
Ducky Clicker Idle Game $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) AntonioZu
Coin Devotee $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Argue with Sheep
The Stare $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Fire Toast
Rainy Waifu $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Morf Games
Waifu Chef $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Morf Games
Tossin Tads! $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Darken Studios
Blue Clicker $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BoRumGG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.