Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Idler?

Idler + Robots

Only 14 developers shipped a Robot Idler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, You Know The Drill, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 42 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $450 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,895)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,993)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 39
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Strategy, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Trade Bots: A Technical Analysis Simulation older $11.99 100 63% 3.0k $36k (exactly $35,970) Cinq-Mars Media
SEX Tentacles [18+] older $3.99 181 57% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,666) Romantic Room
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
Mars Rover Simulator older $19.99 24 25% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) DexterCoding
EvoLife · EA older $9.99 30 83% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Mihaly Sisak
Gridkeeper $1.99 149 69% 4.5k $8.9k (exactly $8,895) pixelwide
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Automation Farm $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Jian Studio
OUTWORKS $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) QUENCH FORGE
Idle Clacker $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Bookis Worthy
Desktop Waifu Defender $0.99 10 90% 300 $297 (exactly $297) nordska
Survival Supplies Factory · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) GESpacecraft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.