Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Idler?

PvP + Idler

Of 39 developers who shipped a paid PvP Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 78 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×293 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 78 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 78 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $4.9k → $3.6k → $208 → $1.2k → $4.5k → $807 (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $438k (exactly $438,458)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 134
Announced 78
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 48%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, PvE, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 6,209 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Flash Doll $8.99 859 80% 26k $232k (exactly $231,672) Game Star
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Kukoro: Stream chat games older $4.99 913 97% 27k $137k (exactly $136,676) HeyNau
Dead District: Survival older $9.99 415 48% 12k $124k (exactly $124,376) BadBit Games
PropHunter · EA older $3.99 917 79% 28k $110k (exactly $109,765) Alone Fox Games
Bhop PRO older $9.99 225 18% 6.8k $67k (exactly $67,432) HorseGames
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Nanomon Virtual Pet $14.99 113 88% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Oscar Brittain
Sit-Back Attack · EA $8.99 110 78% 3.3k $30k (exactly $29,667) Stapleton
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
Rune Legacy Idle $4.99 116 55% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Mume Games
Everfall 2: Idle Dungeon RPG $9.99 42 76% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) GameDevJoey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.