Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Idler?

Idler + Post-apocalyptic

Of 37 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 55 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $119 → $117k → $25k → $1.2k → $718 → $839 (still earning) → $6.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,388)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,786)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $117,516)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 75
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Simulation, Automation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,430 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Dead District: Survival older $9.99 415 48% 12k $124k (exactly $124,376) BadBit Games
STARIO: Haven Tower · EA $13.99 280 93% 8.4k $118k (exactly $117,516) Stargate Games
Doom Sweeper older $4.99 782 72% 23k $117k (exactly $117,065) Paper Dog
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle
IDLE_DIRECTIVE $4.99 505 86% 15k $76k (exactly $75,598) Kevinfu510
Mushroom Nook $4.99 392 98% 12k $59k (exactly $58,682) HyperstasisGaming
Dead Unending older $9.99 108 41% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,368) Tyler Hudson
Thunder Tank: Iron Shield $3.99 221 82% 6.6k $26k (exactly $26,454) Crazy Studio
LAST HAREM $16.99 49 57% 1.5k $25k (exactly $24,975) Kokudo Studio
Ash Warden $6.99 117 70% 3.5k $25k (exactly $24,535) Mgfa Studio
Post Apocalypse Microbe Lab $7.99 59 94% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,142) SKIPMORE, URARA-WORKS
Idle Regenerator $9.99 46 58% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Gestalt Gaming LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.