Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Idler?

Idler + Nature

Of 242 developers who shipped a Nature Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 257 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 257 games are announced against 163 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 257 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 242
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $921 → $2.9k → $1.5k → $2.2k → $3.1k → $1.6k (still earning) → $510 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 242
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 5% $183k (exactly $183,380)
Developers, 2 yr 242
Released games 399
Announced 257
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 33,724 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 257 games are announced against 163 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Garden Galaxy older $9.99 2,472 97% 74k $741k (exactly $740,858) Anneka Tran
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
Ropuka's Idle Island $3.99 4,048 95% 121k $485k (exactly $484,546) Moczan, Little Chmura, Begoña Pereda
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games
Fish Game older $24.99 589 93% 18k $442k (exactly $441,573) A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink… (A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink Games)
Sludgineers $6.99 1,579 87% 47k $331k (exactly $331,116) Snickerdoodle Games, Funk Games
Fishing Inc $4.99 1,833 91% 55k $274k (exactly $274,400) BigBonk Studio
Cornerpond $2.99 2,567 97% 77k $230k (exactly $230,260) foolsroom
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.