Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Idler

Only 7 developers shipped an Idler Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Everfall 2: Idle Dungeon RPG, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 28
Announced 18
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $12k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sex with Succubus ❤️‍🔥 older $9.99 176 50% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) Octo Games
Everfall 2: Idle Dungeon RPG $9.99 42 76% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) GameDevJoey
Dark Treasury older $4.99 52 69% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Astralis Games, Red Axe
Lost Scale: Part One older $24.99 10 90% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Danicy
FEAR background older $9.99 23 13% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) 5K Gamers
Everfall: Idle Dungeon RPG $4.99 30 33% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) GameDevJoey
Fire and Dungeon older $9.99 11 81% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Piece Of Voxel
Nexus of Fate $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) theNeko
DARK AROUND YOU older $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) FlutterBeam
Magic Thief older $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Frost Mind
ARALSK 7 $5.99 4 75% 120 $719 (exactly $719) MIR GAMES, MIR GAMES
Pixel Way: Prologue $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Levelborn
King Of The Dark Circuit $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) SavicNode
Dustline $1.99 2 0% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Dustline Studio
Battlers Of Ekrasys $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Itchys

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.