Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Idler?

Idler + Modern

Of 45 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $810. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 41 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 41 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.5k → $49k → $2.4k → $8.9k → $1.3k → $2.7k → $5.1k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $802 (exactly $802)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,858)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,084)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 115
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,726 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Laptop Tycoon older $7.99 400 74% 12k $96k (exactly $95,880) Roastery Games
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
PC Tycoon 2 older $7.99 319 79% 9.6k $76k (exactly $76,464) Insignis Games
Monster Girls: You Can't Say No 🔞 $14.99 158 91% 4.7k $71k (exactly $71,053) Lewd Star
Cozy Space · EA older $7.99 279 82% 8.4k $67k (exactly $66,876) 攻壳游戏 Gamker Studio
Naughty College 18+ older $9.99 210 53% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) Octo Games
SEX Massage 🔞 older $9.99 201 64% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) BanzaiProject
Holoidle $4.99 388 84% 12k $58k (exactly $58,084) Kindred Interactive
Vending Dokan!: Kozy Kiosk · EA $11.99 150 90% 4.5k $54k (exactly $53,955) Aftabi Games
Bonjour, Cream Inside 💦 $14.99 119 68% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
SEX Amnesia - Lover Sim 🔞 $9.99 166 68% 5.0k $50k (exactly $49,750) OneHand Games
Sex Dorm🔞 $9.99 116 75% 3.5k $35k (exactly $34,765) Play and Cum 💦
片腕のザリガニ - one-armed crayfish $3.99 180 99% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,546) 斜塔ソンブレロ
Parking in Tight Spaces $9.99 40 77% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Hungry Devs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.